Income tax revenue and economic change in the UK

My brief for SPERI responding to the Autumn Statement 2014 (co-authored with Chris Kirkland)

In this Brief, the Sheffield Political Economy Research Institute (SPERI) responds to the coalition government’s 2014 Autumn Statement by considering the optimism and accuracy of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s income tax revenue forecasts, and related forecasts, since 2010. The Autumn Statement confirms the comprehensive failure of the coalition’s deficit reduction agenda, in part due to lower than expected tax revenue forecasts, but the consistent mismatch between economic forecasts and economic reality reveals a failure to acknowledge the profound changes in the UK economy which have accelerated since the financial crisis.

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Image: SPERI